Category Archive

The U.S. stock market has hit a rough patch in recent weeks. Just as notable has been the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields over the past month. While it is understandable for U.S. investors to look inward in seeking explanations for why both stocks and bonds are performing poorly as of late despite a domestic economy that remains solid …

The dog days of summer have descended on capital markets in recent weeks. Following a blistering rally that began with the government resolution to the banking crises in March and accelerated as we moved into the summer months, U.S. stocks have been fading to the downside since the start of August. What can we take away from this recent pullback …

When monitoring capital markets, strange and unexpected relationships can exist between two market segments. Correlation without causation? Perhaps, but these bedfellows often come together for understandable reasons when considered more thoughtfully. Three particular relationships stand out today as worth monitoring for risk and opportunity as we continue through the second half of the year and beyond. The NASDAQ 100 and …

The debate remains ongoing across the economic landscape and financial markets.  Will the economy fall into recession between now and the end of the year?  And will any looming economic slowdown push the U.S. stock market back into bear market territory?  While a number of indicators are flashing conflicting signals, one historically reliable reading within capital markets is emoting a …

On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to attend the GIC Teton Economic Outlook conference in Wyoming.  The event brought together some of the best and most thoughtful economic and financial minds in the industry today for an interactive discussion about the broader macroeconomic and investment outlook as well as more focused discussions on labor markets and cryptocurrencies.  What made this event even …

The outlook is strong for asset allocation portfolios heading into the second half of 2023.  From a broad diversification perspective, markets are providing good reasons for optimism across the key asset class spectrum.  Of course, the outlook is not without risks that must also be considered. Stocks. The trend for stocks as measured by the S&P 500 is definitively to the …

It has arguably been the most anticipated and predicted economic recession in U.S. history.  It has many of the classic trappings leading up to the event including aggressively tightening central bank, inverted yield curve, contracting manufacturing activity, declining leading economic index, and tightening bank lending standards just to name a few.  The only twist is that the actual recession that …

“Sell in May and go away” is an age-old stock market adage.  It’s based on the principle that stocks historically have performed better during the period from November to April versus the stretch from May to October.  Does this maxim still hold up today? Meaningful historical outperformance. The notion of “sell in May and go away” does have merit.  For example, …

Summary The S&P 500 hit a new high for the year, but several signs of downside pressure continue to accumulate under the surface. U.S. mid-caps and small-caps are lagging, and the stock market rally has an increasingly narrowing breadth. The potential exists for this pressure to pull stocks back to the downside, but it also offers better entry points for …

Investors have no shortage of things to worry about in the current environment.  The threat of a looming economic recession, banking crises, and the ongoing debt ceiling debate are just a few of the current threats.  As a result, investors are understandably nervous about getting blindsided by a sudden and sharp downside move in the stock market.  Fortunately, the market …