Category Archive

On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to attend the GIC Teton Economic Outlook conference in Wyoming.  The event brought together some of the best and most thoughtful economic and financial minds in the industry today for an interactive discussion about the broader macroeconomic and investment outlook as well as more focused discussions on labor markets and cryptocurrencies.  What made this event even …

The outlook is strong for asset allocation portfolios heading into the second half of 2023.  From a broad diversification perspective, markets are providing good reasons for optimism across the key asset class spectrum.  Of course, the outlook is not without risks that must also be considered. Stocks. The trend for stocks as measured by the S&P 500 is definitively to the …

It has arguably been the most anticipated and predicted economic recession in U.S. history.  It has many of the classic trappings leading up to the event including aggressively tightening central bank, inverted yield curve, contracting manufacturing activity, declining leading economic index, and tightening bank lending standards just to name a few.  The only twist is that the actual recession that …

“Sell in May and go away” is an age-old stock market adage.  It’s based on the principle that stocks historically have performed better during the period from November to April versus the stretch from May to October.  Does this maxim still hold up today? Meaningful historical outperformance. The notion of “sell in May and go away” does have merit.  For example, …

Summary The S&P 500 hit a new high for the year, but several signs of downside pressure continue to accumulate under the surface. U.S. mid-caps and small-caps are lagging, and the stock market rally has an increasingly narrowing breadth. The potential exists for this pressure to pull stocks back to the downside, but it also offers better entry points for …

Investors have no shortage of things to worry about in the current environment.  The threat of a looming economic recession, banking crises, and the ongoing debt ceiling debate are just a few of the current threats.  As a result, investors are understandably nervous about getting blindsided by a sudden and sharp downside move in the stock market.  Fortunately, the market …

As good as it gets?  The U.S. stock market has been in rally mode dating back to last October.  This includes an impressive bounce since mid-March in the wake of the collapse of a handful of major U.S. banking institutions.  The stock market resilience has indeed been impressive.  But despite these various positives, the path of least resistance for U.S. …

Summary If it keeps on rainin’.  It was nearly a century ago when the Great Mississippi Flood resulted in one of the most destructive and costly natural disasters in U.S. history.  One wonders whether another flood is threatening to break across the U.S. banking system and the broader economy today. Mean old levee.  Over the last two months, we’ve seen the failure …

Summary I recently had the opportunity to attend a two-day conference in Sarasota, Florida hosted by the Global Interdependence Center.  The topic was Cryptocurrency and the Future of Global Finance.  Given that it included some of the leading research and analysts on cryptocurrencies along with an address from Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller, the event provided a substantive …

The stock market has been remarkably resilient so far in 2023 despite a steady stream of challenging news.  Whether it has been persistently high inflation readings, a Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates longer and farther than expected, a set of sudden bank failures, or the lingering threat of arguably the most anticipated economic recession in history, the U.S. …